Persian Gulf mess intensifies again. US eyes non-farm jobs data. EU retail stays positive. German factory orders recover. Aussie gold exports zoom.
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Kia ora.
Welcome to Friday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news oil prices are up today as Iran flexes its diplomatic muscle and threats, one of which is an effort to block US ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile Trump is backing away from more action in the region, potentially leaving US allies in the lurch.
Through all this, crude prices are rising again, and US pump prices never dopped back during the recent fall in crude prices. That has bond markets worried that inflation may be about to turn up again, and yields rose somewhat today.
In the US, July job cut announcements were very low. In fact, US-based employers announced 33,429 job cuts in the month, the fewest in two years. But AI led all reasons for job cuts for a fifth straight month and was responsible for almost 11,000 during the month. The tech sector cut the most jobs, followed by the financial sector. Cut is government , and services were almost non-existent.
This data comes ahead of tomorrow's July non-farm payrolls report which is expected to show jobs growth a very low +80,000.
US jobless claims dipped last week but only by what seasonal factors would have expected. There are now 1.84 mln people on these benefits slightly lower than a year ago, and two years ago. Tough eligibility restrictions are restraining enrollment in conjunction with tougher restrictions on eligibility for SNAP (food stamps). More than 4 mln people have been cleared from these programs and much tougher restrictions are coming. The USDA has restricted access to data recording the numbers of people receiving this assistance.
While still elevated, the NY Fed's Global Supply Chain Pressure Index eased low in July.
In Europe, retail sales sagged slightly in June, dipping -0.1% from May when a +0.1% rise was expected. That leaves them up +1.2% from a year ago on a real/volume basis.
Meanwhile, German factory orders rose +3.1% in June from May to be +6.5% higher than year ago levels, an accelerating pace from May. Apart from a few newsworthy bumps in between, in fact these order levels have been on an upswing since September 2025.
Strong export growth in June delivered Australia an unexpected trade surplus, of +AU$1.9 bln when a deficit of -AU$1.1 was expected after May's -AU$2.4 bln deficit. Their exports rose +8.6% from a year ago, boosted by an unusual rise in gold exports, up more than +25% from the same month a year ago.
Global container freight rates turned up marginally last week from the prior week to be +77% higher than year-ago levels. Outbound rates from China to the US drove the rise, which rates to and from the EU were lower. Those rates have to compete with the very fast & successful overland rail service out of China. Meanwhile, bulk cargo rates jumped more than +12% in the past week to be +60% higher than year-ago levels.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.67%, up +5 bps from this time yesterday.
The price of gold has dipped to US$4245/oz, down -US$8 from yesterday. Silver has dipped -50 USc at just over US$61.50/oz.
Oil prices are up +US$3 from yesterday and now just under US$77.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$82.50/bbl and up +US$3.50. Hormuz transits are still very constrained. There has been no crude tanker and 11 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (5 dark with transponders off) and nine entering for new loads (4 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is still low with just a few more than than 20 either way at the Yemen chokepoint. Alternative routes are now making a significant, if costly, difference.
The Kiwi dollar is down -20 bps from yesterday at just under 58.7 USc. Against the Aussie we are little-changed at 83.4 AUc. Against the euro we have dipped -10 bps to 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.4 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,550 and down -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has stayed low at just on +/-0.6%.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again on Monday.
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