US retail momentum slows, productivity tanks. US cattle farmers retreat. Japanese machine tool orders dip. Aussie confidence diverges. OECD glum.
Kia ora,
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news rapid wage growth is heaping pressure on American inflation, and undermining their labour productivity.
But first, last week may have been a turning point for American retail sales with the weekly Redbook survey reporting an unusual softening. It's only one week, but this result is right out of range and one we should keep an eye on.
Meanwhile, inflation and the pandemic is really hurting American labour productivity. Unit labor costs surged by more than +10% from the same June quarter a year ago and well above analyst forecasts. The data for Q1 was revised up to almost +13%. The Q2-2022 data reflects some chunky movements, a +5.7% jump in hourly compensation and a -4.6% fall in productivity. It put this into historic perspective, American unit labor costs increased +9.5% over the full prior year, the biggest rise in 40 years.
All eyes now turn to the American CPI data for July which is now expected to come in at 8.7% and lower than the 9.1% reported for June.
Separately, there are problems on American cattle farms. Drought and high feed costs are undermining viability for both pasture ranches and feedlots and herds are being culled, a shift that will tighten beef supplies for years ahead.
There was another very well supported US Treasury bond tender this morning, for their 3 year maturity. It went for a median yield of 3.14% which was up on the 3.04% at the prior equivalent event a month ago.
In Japan, machine tool orders slipped in July from June and have been reported up only +5.5% from year-ago levels. That is sharply lower than the June gain of +17% year-on-year
In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer confidence survey found slipping sentiment - not huge from June, but it is the ninth consecutive monthly decline they have recorded. Consumers may be drooping, but business sentiment actually improved in July, according to the widely-watched NAB survey. It's an unusual and unexpected rally in the face of headwinds from inflation and rising interest rates, as well as a deteriorating global economic outlook.
The OECD is reporting that historically high inflation, low consumer confidence and declining stock markets in the main economies are showing a global loss of growth momentum. The latest assessment for the giant US economy has their Q3 expansion running at a very tepid +1% currently.
The UST 10yr yield starts today at 2.80% and +3 bps higher than this time yesterday.
The price of gold will open today at US$1794/oz which is up another +US$6/oz from this time yesterday.
And oil prices start up +50 USc/bbl from this time yesterday at just on US$90/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$96/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar will open today at 62.8 USc which is little-changed from this time yesterday. Against the Australian dollar we are up a little at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are marginally softer at 61.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 71.2 and still in the tight range we have been in for the past month.
The bitcoin price has moved down from this time yesterday, down -3.8% to US$23,033. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just over +/-2.6%.
You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.
And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.