China CPI little-changed, PPI deflates less. Japan expansion confirmed. US wealth grows, but carmaker strike looms. Global food prices fall.
Kia ora,
Welcome to Monday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.
And today we lead with news a bit of price stabilisation is returning to the Chinese economy.
Chinese consumer price inflation came in little-changed for August. It was up +0.3% from July, and up only +0.1% from a year ago. Milk and lamb prices fell in the month, beef prices were unchanged from July. Year-on-year milk prices are essentially unchanged but beef and lamb prices were down almost -5%.
Producer prices fell again in China but in August this fall was less than in any month since March on a year-ago basis. There were essentially unchanged from a month ago which is the 'best' they have been since October last year.
The Japanese economy expanded +1.2% in Q2-2023 from the prior quarter, compared with a flash reading of a +1.5% gain and after a downwardly revised +0.9% rise in Q1. This was the second straight quarter of growth, coming slightly less than market forecasts of a +1.3% rise, and despite being the fastest growth for a year, it was downgraded because of weaker-than-expected household consumption, and investment. Year-on-year, the Japanese economy was +2.0% larger, although the Q2-2023 grew at an annualised +4.8% rate, so relatively fast recently. Just not as fast as earlier indicated.
The Americans reported that their household net worth rose to a record US$154 tln in Q2-2023, a rise of +4.8% in a year. They managed that because their household liabilities only rose +3.6% in the same period. Helping is the surprisingly quick recovery suggesting that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than expected.
US consumer credit rose a modest +US$10.4 bln in July, a second month with a solid but unspectacular rise. Household debt isn't an overall problem for them.
Meanwhile, under-scrutiny American regional banks saw their profits and deposits broadly steady in Q2-2023, suggesting the turmoil earlier in the year has eased considerably. But a regulator watch is still on for unrealised losses, especially around commercial property loans.
There is a major strike threat at American carmakers that we should keep an eye on, however
And also worth noting, Fed whisperer Timiraos says officials are now leaning to a rate pause at their September 21 meeting in ten days
The Canadian economy added almost +40,000 new jobs in August, far exceeding market expectations of a +15,000 increase. Full-time work rose +32,000 and part-time jobs increased by +8,000 in the month from July. But there were some notable distortions. The number of self-employed rose by +50,000. And the overall population rose +103,000 in the month. That meant that their jobless rate stayed at a relatively high 5.5%. Those in jobs saw their pay rise +5.5% from a year ago, and well above their inflation rate of +3.3%.
Meanwhile, global food prices fell -2.1% in August to now be at their lowest since April 2021. These prices are now -25% below their peak in March 2022. A key reason for the latest fall is the retreating dairy price which was down -4% as the world seems to have a dairy surplus now. Meat prices are falling too, related to the fall in grain feed prices.
The UST 10yr yield starts today unchanged at 4.26%.
The price of gold will start today at just on US$1919/oz and down -US$1 from Saturday. But that is down -US$20 from a week ago.
And oil prices are down -50 USc from Saturday at just on US$86.50/bbl in the US. The international Brent price is now down -US$1 at just over US$90/bbl.
The Kiwi dollar starts today little-changed from Saturday at 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are starting the week at 92.3 AUc. Against the euro we are unchanged at 55 euro cents. That all means the TWI-5 is still at 68.5. A week ago it was at 68.7, so very little changed from then.
The bitcoin price is a little lower from this time Saturday, and is now at US$25,685, a net fall of just -0.5% over the weekend. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very low at just on +/-0.4%.
You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.
You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.