US retail sales stay strong. Canadian PPI surges. China tax cuts grow. Evergrande munted. Japan in power stress. Aussie confidence sinks.
Kia ora,
Welcome to Wednesday’s Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.
I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.
Today we lead with news the international bond sell-off is intensifying, although equity holders seem to be ignoring the implications.
But first in the US, retail sales grew strongly last week even if it was off a low year-ago base, but they are above equivalent 2019 levels even accounting for inflation.
Also rising strongly was March factory activity in the Richmond Fed district and putting the weaker February result behind it. At these levels it is well above pre-pandemic levels. New orders, shipments and employment all rose notably. Price pressure, while still high, is easing.
Canadian producer prices jumped +3.1% in February from January, the sixth consecutive monthly increase, and the largest monthly gain in more than 40 years. The rise year-on-year was +16.4% so this recent monthly rise is an acceleration.
We had missed it earlier in the month, but the latest tax cut in China of ¥2.5 tln (NZ$570 bln) add to four earlier big efforts, and all-up they now total almost ¥10 tln in tax cuts (NZ$2.2 tln). Compared to what the US (Trump) Administration pushed through in 2017, this Chinese effort is more. Xi is out-Trumping Trump with a supply-side boost, one that will probably be equally ineffective and work against 'common prosperity' as the Trump ones did too.
And staying in China, the echos of their property developer meltdowns build across the sector. Banks have unexpectedly taken control of almost NZ$3 bln held by one of Evergrande’s key subsidiaries, as the embattled property developer said neither it nor its main listed units could meet an imminent deadline to publish their annual results. It is a company that has more than NZ$30 bln in offshore debt.
There are echoes in Japan too, but theirs are after last week's earthquake. Authorities there are scrambling to prevent power outages in major cities like Tokyo.
In Australia, consumer sentiment is falling hard. Their ANZ survey shows it at its lowest level since September 2020. Fast rising inflation, especially petrol, is denting confidence even though their labour market is strong. But more consumers there feel their incomes aren't keeping up. The weakness in consumer confidence presents a growing near-term risk to the outlook for household spending.
The UST 10yr yield opens today at 2.38% and up another sharp +8 bps from this time yesterday and near a three year high. The UST 2-10 rate curve starts today flatter at +20 bps. Their 1-5 curve is however steeper at +104 bps. Their 30 day-10yr curve is steeper too at +217 bps. While these key yield curves are steepening, some other minor ones are flatter or even inverted, fueling debate about what that might mean among conspiracy types. A 2-10 inversion would be important however.
The price of gold starts today at US$1920/oz and down -US$12/oz from this time yesterday.
And oil prices are little-changed In the US and still just on US$108/bbl. But the international Brent price is up +50 USc to just on US$112/bbl. What has been quite remarkable about Russia's war on Ukraine is the the consequences on the oil and natural gas prices, while high, have not been extreme. The world seems to be adapting, and using it to wean itself off fossil fuels faster than it otherwise would have.
The Kiwi dollar will open today much firmer, now at just on 69.4 USc and up more than +½c to a new four month high. In fact, our currency has appreciated +3.8% since the start on the month and that is a lot. Against the Australian dollar we are a up +½c too at 93.5 AUc. Against the euro we are up +½c at 63.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just at 74.7 and a new four month high.
The bitcoin price was up +3.9% from this time yesterday to US$42,515. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been high at +/- 3.1%.
You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.
And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.
Kia ora. I'm David Chaston and we’ll do this again tomorrow.